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No, things aren’t looking quite that bleak for John McCain just yet.

But those are roughly your chances of actually deciding the outcome of the election with your vote — if you’re fortunate enough to live in New Mexico, New Hampshire, Virginia or Colorado (If you live in Utah or the District of Columbia, God help you.)

This according to friend-of-538 (and Columbia University professor / Red State, Blue State… author) Andrew Gelman, who adopted a recent set of our simulation runs to come to this conclusion.

Andrew disclaims — as would I — that it can be quite rational to vote even given these intimidatingly long odds.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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