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The Odds That You’ll Have A Perfect March Madness Bracket

Good news: Your odds of finishing with a perfect NCAA men’s tournament bracket are far better than last year. If you follow FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions in every game, you’ll have a 1 in 1,610,543,269 chance of calling every game right.

That’s barely worse than a billion-to-one against! Last year, the chances were 1 in 7,419,071,319 — almost five times worse. Why is this year’s so much easier? The 2015 men’s bracket is more top-heavy — the best teams are better, the mediocre teams are worse, and it’s not quite as hard to tell them apart.

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The game-by-game probabilities are below. We don’t count the four “play-in” games in Dayton, Ohio — if we did, your chances would be zero because Manhattan already lost to Hampton, the underdog according to the FiveThirtyEight model.

A 1 in 1,610,543,269 chance is way better than having no chance at all. Pretty smart of that Warren Buffett guy to discontinue his billion-dollar bracket challenge.


Check out FiveThirtyEight’s March Madness predictions.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

Filed under March Madness 111 posts, 2015 NCAA Basketball Tournament 24, Perfect Bracket 3, Warren Buffett 3

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