0:01.8 - 4th
121
119
March 15, 2023
DALLAS MAVERICKS
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
1
Based on historical data, we generate a
matrix of the possible outcomes of the Spurs’ possession (with the ball, down 2, with between 0-2 seconds left in the fourth quarter)
HOW MANY POINTS DO THEY SCORE?
0
1
2
3
4
1.8%
8.2%
5.7%
0.4%
0
62.9%
16.7%
0.5%
2.2%
1.5%
0.1%
0-2
HOW MANY SECONDS DO THEY LEAVE ON THE CLOCK?
2
We use that matrix to construct a tree with
each branch starting with one of the Spurs’ possible possessions
For every possession that ends with time left on the clock, we generate all possible outcomes for the next possession and assign a likelihood to each outcome, repeating the process until the game ends for every branch of the tree
More likely
121
119
0:01.8 - 4th
0:00.0 left
+1
+2
+3
+4
+0
There is a 62.9% chance the Spurs score 0 points with no time left on the clock, resulting in a 121-119 Mavericks win
Spurs possessions ending with time left on the clock
≤0:01.8 left
+0
+1
+2
+4
+3
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
3
We calculate the likelihood of a win for teach team by summing the cumulative probabilities for all branches of the tree where that team wins
Mavericks win
Tied after regulation
Spurs win
82.5%
7.4%
10.1%
55%
45%
CHANCE TO WIN
IN OVERTIME
88.0% chance
the Mavericks win
12.0% chance the Spurs win
0:01.8 - 4th
119
121
March 15, 2023
DALLAS MAVERICKS
SAN ANTONIO SPURS
1
Based on historical data, we generate a matrix of the possible outcomes of the Spurs’ possession (with the ball, down 2, with between 0-2 seconds left in the fourth quarter)
HOW MANY POINTS DO THEY SCORE?
0
1
2
3
4
0
62.9%
1.8%
8.2%
5.7%
0.4%
HOW MANY SECONDS DO THEY LEAVE ON THE CLOCK?
16.7%
0.5%
2.2%
1.5%
0.1%
0-2
2
We use that matrix to construct a tree with each branch starting with one of the Spurs’ possible possessions
For every possession that ends with time left on the clock, we generate all possible outcomes for the next possession and assign a likelihood to each outcome, repeating the process until the game ends for every branch of the tree
More likely
119
121
0:01.8 - 4th
Spurs possessions ending with time left on the clock
0:00.0 left
≤0:01.8 left
+1
+2
+3
+4
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+0
There is a 62.9% chance the Spurs score 0 points with no time left on the clock, resulting in a 121-119 Mavericks win
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
This branch represents the Spurs scoring 0 points but leaving time on the clock, with the Mavericks then scoring 2 points to win 123-119
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
There is a 1.8% chance the Spurs tie the game with time left on the clock but the Mavericks then fail to score, forcing the game into overtime
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
0:00.0 left
+0
+1
+2
+3
+4
3
We calculate the likelihood of a win for teach team by summing the cumulative probabilities for all branches of the tree where that team wins
Mavericks win
Spurs win
Tied after regulation
82.5%
10.1%
7.4%
CHANCE TO WIN
IN OVERTIME
55%
45%
88.0% chance that the Mavericks win
12.0% chance that the Spurs win
