HALFTIME
66
70
April 2, 2023
DALLAS MAVERICKS
ATLANTA HAWKS
1
We project the number of points per possession we expect each team to score in the second half based on its projected lineup, each player’s RAPTOR ratings and the current score of the game
1.18
1.21
POINTS PER POSSESSION
POINTS PER POSSESSION
2
We combine the projected number of possessions left in the game for each team with their expected points per possession to generate two independent Poisson distributions, representing the probability that each team will score a given number of points in the game
More likely
110
120
130
140
150
3
We combine the two Poisson distributions into a matrix of all possible game scores, from which we can calculate the likelihood of a win for each team
More likely
Hawks win
Mavericks win
Possible final scores for the Atlanta Hawks
110
120
130
140
150
70.6% chance that the Hawks win
Possible final scores for the Dallas Mavericks
110
120
130
140
29.4% chance that the Mavericks win
150
The Hawks ended up winning this game by a final score of 132-130
We generate each team’s chances to win an overtime period and use those percentages to distribute the odds of tie scores between the two teams
HALFTIME
70
66
April 2, 2023
DALLAS MAVERICKS
ATLANTA HAWKS
1
We project the number of points per possession we expect each team to score in the second half based on its projected lineup, each player’s RAPTOR ratings and the current score of the game
1.18
1.21
POINTS PER POSSESSION
POINTS PER POSSESSION
2
We combine the projected number of possessions left in the game for each team with their expected points per possession to generate two independent Poisson distributions, representing the probability that each team will score a given number of points in the game
More likely
110
120
130
140
150
3
We combine the two Poisson distributions into a matrix of all possible game scores, from which we can calculate the likelihood of a win for each team
Possible final scores for the Atlanta Hawks
110
120
130
140
150
More likely
Hawks win
Mavericks win
70.6% chance that the Hawks win
110
Possible final scores for the Dallas Mavericks
120
130
140
29.4% chance that the Mavericks win
The Hawks ended up winning this game by a final score of 132-130
150
We generate each team’s chances to win an overtime period and use those percentages to distribute the odds of tie scores between the two teams
