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Updated 11:36 PM |

What Went Down On Election Night 2017 Filed under 2017 Elections

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Micah Cohen 11:36 PM A Good Night For Democrats

That’ll do it for us tonight, dear readers. We got a lot of interesting new data to sift through, and we’ll have more analysis of the day’s results soon. But for now, Democrats pick up governor’s mansions in Virginia and New Jersey. The Virginia House of Delegates maybe could flip to the Democrats (a surprise). Medicaid expansion passes in Maine.

In short, it was a good night for Democrats.

As always, though, I asked members of our live-blog team for their headlines coming out of Tuesday. (And as always, many of them responded with about three or four headlines-worth of characters.)

Clare: Dems Sweep Virginia; Bannonites crush sour grapes to make victory wine for insurgent, swamp-draining 2018 midterms.

Nate: I guess I’ll make mine polling-focused to mix things up a bit. Still, this is an important sub-headline: Republicans should stop taking comfort in the fact that polls underestimated Trump in 2016. They could just as easily wind up overestimating Republicans instead in 2018, as they did in Virginia tonight.

Dave: With all the evidence in front of us, Democrats are slight favorites to retake the U.S. House in 2018.

Perry: All the fundamentals favored Northam: 1. Virginia is Democratic-leaning, 2. Republicans control the presidency and 3. that president is deeply unpopular. But a Gillespie win would have been a “holy shit” kind of thing — an establishment GOP pol had embraced Trump tactics and won in Virginia. So to me, the headline is something like, “In Virginia, Nervous Democrats Get a Much-Desired Victory Over Trumpism.”

Harry: Democrats Romp As Republican Run For The Hills Ahead Of 2018 Midterms

Meena: TV News On Election Nights Is Just Louder, More Annoying Twitter.

Dan: My take-homes: While many things in politics aren’t predictable, the fact that unpopular presidents take down their parties when they’re not on the ballot is. And state politics is looking less like a distinctive arena and more like a isplaced version of national politics.

Meghan: Live Blog Copy Comes In Messier And Messier As The Night Wears On

David Wasserman 11:33 PM

One final note: It’s hard not to conclude the August events in Charlottesville had a galvanizing effect on Democrats in that area. Across the state, raw votes cast were up 16 percent over 2013. But in the city of Charlottesville, raw votes cast were up 31 percent. Northam took 84 percent of the vote there.

David Wasserman 11:30 PM Our Final Virginia Delegate Count

We’re about to wrap this live blog, but here’s the current count for the Virginia House of Delegates. There are 100 seats, and Democrats currently hold 48, Republicans 47.

Here are the five outstanding races that will determine control — and may be in recount territory:

  • House District 27 (Chesterfield County): Del. Roxann Robinson (R) is up by 129 votes.
  • House District 28 (Fredericksburg): Bob Thomas (R) is up by 86 votes.
  • House District 40 (Fairfax): Donte Tanner (D) is up by 68 votes.
  • House District 68 (Richmond): Dawn Adams (D) up by 316 votes.
  • House District 94 (Newport News): Del. David Yancey (R) up by 12 votes.

If every one of these races breaks to the current leader, Virginia would have a 50-50 House of Delegates come January.

David Wasserman 11:19 PM

It’s hard to overstate what a terrible night this was for Republicans in Northern Virginia, but just to drive the point home, they may no longer hold a single delegate seat in Fairfax County after tonight. GOP Del. Tim Hugo, who was thought to be a strong favorite owing to his retail strength in southern Fairfax, is currently trailing Democrat Donte Tanner by 68 votes.

Harry Enten 11:18 PM Washington 45 Looks Like A Democratic Pickup Too

Democrat Manka Dhingra is leading in early returns in Washington’s 45th Senate district, 55 percent to 45 percent. (Polls there closed at 11 p.m. Eastern.) There’s no reason to believe that result won’t hold as more votes are counted. If every other race goes as expected (and we believe it will), this is a pickup for the Democrats and with it they pickup control of the Washington state Senate. That means they control every legislative body and governorship on the West Coast.

David Wasserman 11:13 PM

Twitter 11:08 PM

Twitter 10:51 PM

Harry Enten 10:48 PM

Atlantic City mayor is another race where control has flipped from Republican to Democratic.

Harry Enten 10:47 PM

Question

Answer

Well, Bemused Redneck, these districts are not overwhelmingly Republican. Trump won 117 by 3 percentage points and 119 by 7 points. The flips there are obviously not bad news for Democrats; they are good news. But I don’t think they are particularly surprising. I think they fit with a national environment that is in the Democrats’ favor right now.

Harry Enten 10:39 PM

As I wait for the Nassau County website to reload (quite slowly), I can report that 20 percent of precincts have reported. The Republican candidate in the county executive contest, Jack Martins, is now up by 1 percentage point. This one will take a while to call, it seems.

Harry Enten 10:30 PM

In a rare loss for Democrats, independent Ben Walsh has defeated Democrat Juanita Perez Williams in the Syracuse mayoral race. He’s up 53 percent to 39 percent, with 84 percent of precincts reporting.

Virginia’s Democratic delegate success meter

The 25 most vulnerable Republican seats in the House of Delegates

Pickup opportunities for Democrats
PAST RESULTS TONIGHT’S RETURNS
DISTRICT 2013 GOVERNOR 2014 SENATE 2016 PRESIDENT MARGIN % REPORTING
2nd McAuliffe +11 Warner +6 Clinton +17 D+25.3 95.7%
31st McAuliffe +3 Gillespie +2 Clinton +7 D+9.0 96.2%
32nd McAuliffe +7 Warner +2 Clinton +19 D+17.1 100.0%
42nd McAuliffe +6 Warner +2 Clinton +20 D+22.0 94.7%
67th McAuliffe +8 Warner +6 Clinton +22 D+15.9 100.0%
Toss ups
PAST RESULTS TONIGHT’S RETURNS
DISTRICT 2013 GOVERNOR 2014 SENATE 2016 PRESIDENT MARGIN % REPORTING
12th McAuliffe +6 Warner +8 Clinton +2 D+7.2 97.1%
13th McAuliffe +1 Gillespie +4 Clinton +14 D+9.2 95.0%
21st McAuliffe +4 Warner +3 Clinton +4 D+5.5 95.0%
72nd Cuccinelli +5 Gillespie +6 Clinton +4 D+5.6 100.0%
94th McAuliffe +3 Warner +2 Clinton +5 R+0.1 100.0%
Reaches
PAST RESULTS TONIGHT’S RETURNS
DISTRICT 2013 GOVERNOR 2014 SENATE 2016 PRESIDENT MARGIN % REPORTING
10th Cuccinelli +3 Gillespie +8 Clinton +4 D+3.9 100.0%
40th Cuccinelli +7 Gillespie +11 Clinton +8 D+0.6 95.7%
50th Cuccinelli +1 Gillespie +3 Clinton +12 D+9.1 93.8%
51st Cuccinelli +1 Gillespie +7 Clinton +6 D+6.0 95.5%
68th Cuccinelli +2 Gillespie +4 Clinton +10 D+1.2 96.6%
73rd Cuccinelli +5 Gillespie +5 Clinton +7 D+2.8 100.0%
85th Cuccinelli +2 Gillespie +3 Trump +1 D+2.0 94.4%
100th McAuliffe +2 Warner +1 Clinton +2 R+4.5 100.0%
Wave territory
PAST RESULTS TONIGHT’S RETURNS
DISTRICT 2013 GOVERNOR 2014 SENATE 2016 PRESIDENT MARGIN % REPORTING
26th Cuccinelli +17 Gillespie +20 Trump +9 R+9.2 100.0%
27th Cuccinelli +8 Gillespie +8 Trump +4 R+0.5 95.5%
28th Cuccinelli +5 Gillespie +9 Trump +4 R+0.4 100.0%
33rd Cuccinelli +15 Gillespie +20 Trump +16 R+9.7 100.0%
62nd Cuccinelli +9 Gillespie +7 Trump +6 R+3.6 92.6%
83rd Cuccinelli +4 Gillespie +9 Trump +8 R+12.8 95.5%
84th Cuccinelli +1 Gillespie +5 Trump +5 R+3.3 94.4%

Nate Silver 10:25 PM

To bring the point home a bit, Democrats have won — or are leading in — literally every race that Daily Kos Elections decided to highlight on its scoreboard tonight, except the 45th state Senate District in Washington state, where polls are still open. Some of those wins are by large margins, and some are narrow — but it’s a pretty comprehensive sweep so far.

Harry Enten 10:22 PM

The biggest result still out is Washington’s 45th Senate District special election. If Democrats win there (and outside some shocking result in that state), they will control the state Senate. That means Democrats will control every state legislative body and governorship on the West Coast.

Harry Enten 10:21 PM

Democrats are hoping to go two-for-two in executive races in the suburban counties around New York. Democrat Laura Curran is ahead by 7 points in Nassau County, with 13 percent of precincts reporting. Democrat George Latimer is ahead by 20 points in Westchester County, with 19 percent of precincts reporting. Both seats are currently held by Republicans.

Twitter 10:18 PM

Aaron Bycoffe 10:17 PM

As Dave said, it’s unlikely we’ll be able to make a call tonight on who will control the Virginia House of Delegates. Here’s where each seat’s race stands:

The Virginia House of Delegates races, by margin

Margins and absolute vote differences as of 10 p.m. Eastern time

DISTRICT MARGIN VOTE DIFF.
94th R+0.1
12
28th R+0.4
104
40th D+0.5
125
27th R+0.5
138
68th D+1.2
463
85th D+2.0
447
73rd D+2.8
788
84th R+3.4
647
62nd R+3.6
819
10th D+3.9
1,137
72nd D+5.6
1,780
100th R+5.7
1,243
51st D+6.0
1,499
21st D+7.0
1,422
12th D+7.2
1,590
31st D+9.0
2,358
50th D+9.1
1,813
26th R+9.2
1,871
13th D+9.2
1,826
33rd R+9.7
2,951
20th R+12.0
3,146
83rd R+12.5
2,518
91st R+13.1
3,160
96th R+14.0
4,892
88th R+15.2
4,008
67th D+15.7
4,115
54th R+16.0
3,761
25th R+16.1
4,906
81st R+16.3
3,201
32nd D+17.1
5,211
82nd R+18.4
4,636
56th R+19.1
6,043
55th R+19.9
6,019
93rd D+20.2
5,367
34th D+20.5
6,110
17th R+21.3
5,613
42nd D+22.0
5,926
58th R+22.5
6,853
60th R+23.4
4,889
87th D+23.9
6,888
30th R+24.4
6,016
99th R+24.4
6,489
64th R+24.9
7,670
2nd D+25.3
5,065
18th R+26.1
7,203
59th R+26.9
6,806
66th R+27.4
7,534
8th R+28.0
7,927
65th R+28.6
9,712
29th R+28.7
6,756
98th R+30.2
8,625
23rd R+30.9
8,083
7th R+33.3
8,643
86th D+37.5
8,565
9th R+40.7
9,493
24th R+43.5
10,502
97th R+44.6
14,535
38th D+46.6
9,013
53rd D+49.4
11,722
1st R+52.3
10,211
74th D+52.8
13,894
3rd R+56.5
9,809
49th D+63.0
14,661
6th R+63.7
13,127
77th D+65.0
11,901
89th D+70.0
11,650
41st D+81.7
18,138
69th D+82.5
23,447
39th D+85.3
17,855
44th D+85.7
14,863
36th D+86.0
19,434
35th D+86.1
18,036
43rd D+86.9
18,167
37th D+87.4
16,410
76th R+87.8
20,136
15th R+88.5
18,103
48th D+89.4
24,520
78th R+89.9
18,687
45th D+90.3
29,573
75th D+90.5
15,267
79th D+90.6
12,083
95th D+91.3
14,927
63rd D+92.0
14,695
47th D+92.4
28,501
4th R+92.4
14,687
22nd R+92.4
18,104
19th R+92.7
20,161
16th R+92.8
15,890
46th D+92.8
18,213
57th D+93.8
24,564
14th R+93.9
15,020
71st D+94.0
23,511
80th D+94.0
19,505
11th D+94.3
15,187
92nd D+94.7
17,698
5th R+94.8
17,881
61st R+95.3
17,004
70th D+95.7
18,242
90th D+95.7
11,643
52nd D+100.0
13,442

Source: Virginia Department of Elections

Nate Silver 10:12 PM

We’re getting more results from New Jersey, and Murphy’s margin is now up to 15 points, according to The New York Times (which has more results reported than the networks do). But looking at a more comprehensive set of counties, I’m less sure about my earlier assertion that Murphy’s margin will eventually get into the high teens — 15 points may be about where it settles.

Dan Hopkins 10:12 PM What Maine Might Mean

The Associated Press has called Question 2 in Maine — voters there have chosen to expand Medicaid. What happens next? First, the legislature will have a chance to repeal or amend the measure. But it has already passed the Medicaid expansion five times, and this time, it is not subject to a veto from Republican Gov. Paul LePage. So if Question 2 becomes law and Maine expands Medicaid, estimates indicate that somewhere in the ballpark of 70,000 people are likely to gain health insurance. There also might be an effect on other states: Idaho advocates recently filed to put the Medicaid expansion on the ballot there.

Harry Enten 10:12 PM

With 45 percent of precincts in the special U.S. House election in Utah’s 3rd District in, Republican John Curtis leads 59 percent to 25 percent over Democrat Kathie Allen. As I wrote before, it’s unclear how exactly to read that result in the context of the national environment. It’s a district that was very heavily in favor of Romney in 2012 but where Trump underperformed. What I can say is that Curtis will be the next representative from that district.

David Wasserman 10:10 PM

If I had to put a bet on it, I’d bet Democrats will ultimately win control of Virginia’s House of Delegates. They’ve captured 47 seats, and they’re ahead in four more races, pending absentee and provisional ballots. So far, absentee ballots have broken more Democratic than the Election Day vote, so that’s no comfort to Republicans. But the bottom line is, we probably won’t be able to call control tonight.

Harry Enten 10:03 PM

I’ve been watching the Syracuse mayoral race with some interest. There were a lot of candidates on the ballot. With 18 percent of precincts reporting, Democrat Juanita Perez Williams leads independent Ben Walsh 47 percent to 45 percent.

Dan Hopkins 10:01 PM

It has likely flown under the radar, but an interesting race is drawing to a close here in Philadelphia. Democrat Larry Krasner is cruising to victory in the race for district attorney, currently winning more than 73 percent of the vote against his Republican opponent. Krasner is an outspoken advocate of criminal justice reform and has been fiercely opposed by the main Philadelphia police union.

Dan Hopkins 9:58 PM The Blue Shift In Election Canvassing

Dave pointed out that control of Virginia’s House of Delegates may depend on provisional ballots. And although that will in turn hinge on the specific districts that have yet to be decided, it’s worth noting that overall, late election canvassing tends to favor the Democrats, as Edward Foley and Charles Stewart note in this paper.

Dan Hopkins 9:57 PM Maine’s Medicaid Expansion Is On Track

I’ve been tracking Maine’s Medicaid expansion by comparing how Question 2 is performing to Clinton’s performance in 2016. And as this chart shows, Question 2 is typically doing a bit better than Clinton in most towns, setting it on track to pass.

Harry Enten 9:57 PM

I’ve been watching New York City politics for a long time, and I’ve seen very few campaigns as incendiary as independent mayoral candidate Bo Dietl’s. Right now, he’s getting just 1 percent of the vote, which is good enough for sixth place.

Seth Masket 9:53 PM

Exit polls from Virginia and New Jersey show continuation of polarization by race, age group, and education level, but not by income, which may be declining as a predictor of party voting.

Nate Silver 9:50 PM

In the nine New Jersey counties that have reported at least 75 percent of their results, Murphy is outperforming Clinton’s margin by an average of 3 points, although with a lot of variation from county to county. Clinton won the state by 14 points, so that would project a margin of victory in the high teens — or perhaps the low 20s since Murphy has been doing especially well relative to Clinton in the most populous counties so far.

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