Donald Trump has been elected president of the United States.
In an extremely narrow sense, I’m not that surprised by the outcome, since polling — to a greater extent than the conventional wisdom acknowledged — had shown a fairly competitive race with critical weaknesses for Clinton in the Electoral College. It’s possible, perhaps even likely, that Clinton will eventually win the popular vote as more votes come in from California.
But in a broader sense? It’s the most shocking political development of my lifetime.
We’re going to get some sleep, and then we’ll have much more to say over the next days and weeks about how Trump won and what it means for the country. We hope you’ll continue to join us on a regular basis.
To many people’s surprise, Trump won more Latino voters than Romney did in 2012.
Here’s how the firm Latino Decisions found the Latino vote broke out by state, for Clinton and Trump.
- Arizona — 84-12
- California — 80-16
- Colorado — 81-16
- Florida — 67-31
- Illinois — 86-10
- Nevada — 81-16
- North Carolina — 82-15
- New York — 88-10
- Ohio — 80-17
- Texas — 80-16
- Virginia — 81-15
- Wisconsin — 87-10
Trump’s margin among Latino voters in Florida, though thinner than it has been for Republican candidates in past races, likely helped him win that critical state.
Here are the states where Clinton’s likely to beat Obama’s margin from 2012, according to current projections:
- the District of Columbia
There are … not a lot of swing states on that list.
There are several really close contests that haven’t been called, so you might be wondering what the recount laws are in those states. Here’s what we know:
Florida (recount laws):
- A margin of 0.5 percent or less triggers an automatic recount of machine-tallied votes.
- If that recount brings the margin to 0.25 percent or less, that triggers a hand recount.
Michigan (recount laws):
- A margin of 2,000 votes or less triggers an automatic recount for the top two candidates.
- Candidates can petition for a recount if they believe there was fraud or counting error.
New Hampshire (recount laws):
- Candidates can request a recount if the candidate applying for a recount is behind by less than 20 percent of the total votes cast in towns where the election is contested.
Pennsylvania (recount laws):
- A margin of 0.5 percent triggers an automatic recount.
- Voters can petition county boards for a recount.
- Both voters and candidates can petition courts for a recount.
Johnson is at just 3 percent of the national vote. That may go up slightly, but he’s likely not going to get close to 5 percent. In the end, most voters ended up choosing either Clinton or Trump.
Trump has won one of Maine’s electoral votes. That means he’ll be the first Republican to win an electoral vote in New England since 2000. He’s the first to win an electoral vote in any New England state other than New Hampshire since 1988.
Something to remember: Whatever your feelings about the state of the country right now, it’s fundamentally not that different a place whether the final call is that Clinton has narrowly won or narrowly lost. Add just 1 percent to Clinton’s vote share and take 1 percent away from Trump’s, and she would have won Florida and Pennsylvania, therefore would probably have been on her way to a narrow Electoral College victory.
John Podesta just said that Hillary Clinton has no plan to concede tonight, as many states are still close (though most have been called for Trump). The last time we didn’t get a concession speech on election night was 2004. Kerry conceded the next day.
There was some talk about Trump winning in the Iron Range in Minnesota. Well, Clinton held onto it. For instance, she won St. Louis County (Duluth) by 12 percentage points.
[forecast id=trump]Trump wins Pennsylvania. Our model now gives him a 93 percent chance of winning the election.
One thing I’ve been thinking about here is where the Democratic Party goes next. Three of the last four Congressional elections (2010, 2014 and 2016) were bad for the Democrats, leading to a thin bench. President Obama served out his two terms. The Clinton dynasty is over. But the most obvious alternatives to Clinton — Bernie Sanders, Joe Biden — are also pretty old. It seems that all of the energy in the party is on the left, and it wouldn’t be surprising if the 2020 nominee were someone from the Sanders wing of the party. But who is that candidate? I don’t know. There are a lot of opportunities for talented, up-and-coming, left-wing politicians, beginning with the 2018 midterms.
I wrote this morning about this election’s status as the first since a Supreme Court decision struck down portions of the Voting Rights Act of 1965, prompting states to close hundreds of polling places. Among the states affected were three crucial states won by Trump: Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina.
There’s been an ongoing debate about the sources of Trump support, and it will only heat up after tonight’s stunning result. But I wanted to offer a few quick preliminary thoughts. First, it’s critical to differentiate why candidates win primaries and why they win general elections. And second, in re-reading explanations from Trump’s primary supporters about why they backed him, one thing that stands out to me is their anger at the political system, a point Lynn Vavreck made as well. Any politician who wins a primary is going to gain support for lots of reasons. But as we are figuring out the reasons for Trump’s unexpected success, don’t discount the number of Republicans who saw politics as deeply broken — and saw a businessman and outsider as an answer.
CNN has called Alaska for Trump. Trump looks to be on his way to winning over 300 electoral votes, if current trends hold.
Which means, Harry, that the AP has essentially called the presidency for Trump.
The Associated Press has called Pennsylvania for Trump.
We expect that Trump will eventually finish with about 47 percent of the popular vote which, if he wins the Electoral College, would be the lowest vote share for a president-elect since Bill Clinton in 1992 (43 percent).
[forecast id=rep]Pat Toomey, the incumbent Republican senator from Pennsylvania, will keep his seat. Our model now gives Republicans a 99 percent chance of retaining control of the Senate.
I’ve been watching to see if San Francisco would vote to allow 16- and 17-year-olds to vote in local elections, as they’re allowed to do in a few other countries and a handful of places in the U.S. Prop F needed a majority, and it looks like it’ll come up just short, with 46.3 percent of the vote counted so far.
Jason Kander is probably going to lose the Senate race in Missouri. He’s down by 5 percentage points with 89 percent of precincts reporting. Still, he ran 16 percentage points ahead of Clinton in the presidential race in Missouri. Unfortunately for him, Clinton is losing by so much in the state (21 percentage points) that Kander’s overperformance is not enough.
With several news outlets calling Pennsylvania for Republican Senator Pat Toomey, the best the Democrats could plausibly now do in the Senate is to pick up 4 seats: Illinois (which they won earlier tonight), New Hampshire (not yet called), Missouri (not yet called, but Democrat Jason Kander is trailing significantly) and Louisiana (where they’ll probably have one of the top two finishers, leading to a runoff). Even if Democrats draw that kind of inside straight, however, the scenario would yield just a 50-50 Senate, probably with a President Trump.
We’ll never know exactly how much FBI Director James Comey’s letter to Congress on Oct. 28 about new emails in the Clinton investigation hurt her chances of winning the presidency or Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate. But we do know that her lead in polls fell by about 3 percentage points after the letter — and Democrats likely won’t soon forget that.
Would Bernie Sanders have done better against Trump than Clinton? Many people, including me, thought Sanders would do worse because of his very progressive ideology. But perhaps ideology isn’t as important a factor in voters’ minds. Given Trump’s victory, being an outsider may have trumped an ideology that some might see as extreme.
As of current vote counts, the number of voters who cast ballots for candidates other than Clinton and Trump exceeds Trump’s winning margin — or lead, in races that haven’t yet been called — in many important states, including Arizona, Florida, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. But don’t pin Trump’s win on those voters who eschewed the two major candidates. Not all of them would have voted for Clinton had they been forced to choose only between her and Trump. And some might not have voted at all. Far more Democrats in Florida in 2000 voted for George W. Bush than voted for Ralph Nader.
The Associated Press has called Toomey the winner of the Pennsylvania Senate race. The Republican Party has officially retained control of the upper chamber of Congress with that victory.