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FiveThirtyEight’s NCAA tournament forecasting model calculates the chance of each team reaching each round, taking into account a composite of power rankings, pre-season rankings, the team’s placement on the NCAA’s 68-team S-curve, player injuries and geography. Read about our model »

Matthew Conlen is a computational journalist for FiveThirtyEight.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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