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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

In the interests of time, we’ll keep this brief. While Obama’s lead in the national tracking polls has collapsed, the state polling continues to show largely flat trendlines. However, Obama’s number has been below the trendline curve in the supertracker in each of the past two days, and if his tracking polls don’t begin to recover soon, it is going to begin to exert some significant downward pressure on his numbers.

Otherwise, most of these states are pretty boring, but it’s a good result for McCain in Missouri — note the particularly large sample size in the new SurveyUSA poll — which seems decreasingly likely to be the state that swings the election.

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