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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

If he were going to name Caroline Kennedy to the Senate, wouldn’t it have happened already?

People have made the comparison to Sarah Palin, but this feels more Harriet Miers-ish, as in the longer someone is left out there hanging, the more manifest the problems with their credentials, and the less likely they’ll get appointed because of inertia alone.

Quinnipiac is out with a poll showing Andrew Cuomo preferred 31-24 over Kennedy; this is noteworthy because Kennedy had been slightly ahead of Cuomo in a Quinnipiac poll in December. And this is not the only poll of its kind; the boys at Public Policy Polling had found a significant decline in support for Kennedy — a much more significant decline than identified by Quinnipiac, in fact.

These are just polls, I know, but since the Constitution empowers governors to appoint replacement senators without holding a vote, they are arguably more meaningful in this instance than they are at any other time, the closest the public gets to actually having input on the election. And while I was skeptical about some of the original netroots skepticism about Kennedy, she simply hasn’t worn well.

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