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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

In the presidential contest, only Missouri remains uncalled. The single electoral vote in Omaha remains uncalled, but it looks like Obama will win it. Per the Omaha World Herald,

“I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic,” said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. “I’m disappointed (in the numbers).”

In the Senate, three races remain undecided, and the tally stands at 57-40, in favor of the Democrats, if you include Joe Lieberman. Harry Reid may finally be laying the groundwork to kick Joe to the curb, as the two met today. But that aside, the Georgia race is going to a runoff, and the winner won’t be known until December 2.

In Minnesota, an automatic recount will be triggered between Al Franken and Norm Coleman, with the only immediate drama being who will go into the recount with the lead. Coleman appears likely to have that lead, but the numbers have inched closer in Franken’s direction.

In Alaska, there seems to have been an across-the-board polling failure, one we wrote about yesterday. Alaskans seem to have gone for the convicted tubes guy, with a giant caveat that thousands of ballots seem to be unaccounted for. Josh Marshall now dryly supports the Alaska Independence Party, and given the way Talking Points Memo has completely owned the Alaska political corruption stories over the past several years, we’d say he’s earned the privilege.

In the House, Democrat Tom Perriello appears near to defeating Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in Virginia’s 5th district running from Charlottesville down to the southern border. Perriello leads by 639 votes in the Virginia State Board of Elections’ latest update. Albemarle was, ironically, where we saw a decent Republican ground game, relative to other Republican efforts. We also saw a huge Democratic effort that dwarfed the Republican operation.

In Maryland, Democrat Frank Kravotil holds a 1,871 vote lead on Republican Andy Harris. That’s the race, you will recall, where primaried Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest refused to support Harris, with this pricelessly sarcastic gem: “Let’s see, the Republican Party, or my eternal soul?” Ballots cast in the 2008 race are 340,886, ballots cast in the 2004 race (presidential years get more than mid-term years) numbered 343,735.

In Washington State, the 8th district rematch between Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner is still not called, with Reichert leading by 1,965 votes, but much of the vote still to be counted by mail-in absentee ballot.

In California, Tom McClintock, of Thousand Oaks, was locked in an extremely tight race with Democrat Charlie Brown for the corrupt John Doolittle’s retiring seat in CA-04. With thousands of provisional ballots to be counted, that race is still some time away from a decision.

In Alaska, Don Young looks like he’ll hold onto his seat, since he holds a large eight-point lead on Ethan Berkowitz, but again, the Alaska results are screwy and the Young-Berkowitz race isn’t called.

Finally, in Louisiana, two runoff elections will be held on December 6. In the 2d district, corrupt Democratic incumbent William Jefferson won his race, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election against Anh “Joseph” Cao, his Republican opponent. In Louisiana’s 4th district, Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming will vie along with two independents for an open Republican-held seat in the +7 Republican PVI district.

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