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The Auto Bailout Vote: a Preview of Coming Attractions?

Just a quick observation on Thursday’s cloture motion on the Big 3 Bailout. Ten Republicans voted for cloture; eight of the ten are from states that Barack Obama won, and that doesn’t count Kit Bond’s vote in Missouri, who is in for a tough re-election fight in a purple state.

Four Democrats voted against closure; three of the four are from states McCain won, with the only exception being Harry Reid, who voted no for procedural reasons.

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Republicans Voting YEA:

Bond (MO)
Brownback (KS)
Collins (ME)
Dole (NC)
Domenici (NM)
Lugar (IN)
Snowe (ME)
Specter (PA)
Voinovich (OH)
Warner, John (VA)

Democrats voting NAY:

Baucus (MT)
Lincoln (AR)

Reid (NV)
Tester (MT)

We’re liable to see a fair amount of this, I would think, once the 111th Congress officially convenes next month, where Obama’s popularity in a given state matters almost as much as the little ‘D’ or ‘R’ next to a senator’s surname.

For the record, there will be 10 Republicans in the 111th Congress in states that Obama won … they are:

Burr (NC)
Collins (ME)
Ensign (NV)
Grassley (IA)
Gregg (NH)
Lugar (IN)
Martinez (FL)
Snowe (ME)
Specter (PA)
Voinovich (OH)

If Norm Coleman wins the recount in Minnesota, that will make 11. I’d guess that pretty much all of these votes will be in play at least some of the time, except perhaps for Martinez, who is retiring, and Ensign, who has a leadership position with the NRSC.

Conversley, there are 13 Democrats in states that Obama lost…

Baucus (MT)
Begich (AK)
Byrd (WV)
Conrad (ND)
Dorgan (ND)
Johnson (SD)
Landrieu (LA)
Lincoln (AR)
McCaskill (MO)
Nelson (NE)
Pryor (AR)
Rockefeller (WV)
Tester (MT)

…and most of those votes may be problematic for Obama at one time or another too, with the possible exceptions of McCaskill, Rockefeller and Begich.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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