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Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia.

In the Western half, he’s not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties.

I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close. Donnie Fowler thinks the Obama people have more reason to be excited about Florida right now.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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