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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

10:06 CDT: [Nate] The CBS poll of undecideds had Biden winning the debate 46-21, with 33 percent calling it a tie. But few votes were moved as as result. Among the undecideds, 18 percent committed to Obama, and 10 percent committed to McCain, but 71 percent remained uncommitted.

Biden won the CNN and CBS focus groups. Palin won the Luntz focus group. The candidates tied in the Halperin focus group.

9:38 CDT:
[Sean] Brett and I are going to rush over to SLU where Sarah Palin is having a rally, and then later a few well-earned drinks in the Loop. Nate will do some post-mortem thoughts in a bit.

9:37 CDT: [Nate] I think this one is likely to go to Biden in the post-debate polling, and perhaps by a fair margin. The expectations game is much more important for the media than for the public, and for a lot of people, she’s going to come across as too scripted, come across way too close to the SNL caricature.

9:29 CDT: [Sean] The woman too chicken to face a press conference says she sure doggone bumdiggity wishes there could be more of this with less of that pesky media involved.

9:24 CDT: [Sean] Biden is really hitting it strong here at the end. Really emotionally connecting with kitchen table issues and middle class struggles while Palin has been cutesy throughout.

9:23 CDT: [Sean] Wow, Nate.

9:22 CDT: [Nate] What kind of prop odds could you have gotten on Biden being the one to cry?

9:21 CDT: [Sean] Biden has had a number of moments where he has emotionally connected, including that moment just there, where he looked like he was choking up about a child who might not make it. Biden’s best moment of the night, hands down.

VP Debate- BrettMarty.com

9:19 CDT: [Nate] I think her VP answer might be one of those things that turns out to be a bigger deal after the fact.

9:16 CDT: [Nate] Actually, the dial-testers liked her last answer. [Sean] It was a “Whoa!” breathtaking moment here in the crowd when she said the teachers’ reward would be in heaven. Given that Obama has argued for increased teacher pay, I have to believe this is going to be an issue the Obama camp pushes in the coming days.

9:14 CDT: [Sean] Palin’s suggestion for the vice-presidency, as a tweak? Maybe give it a little more power. There has been open laughter at Palin the last few minutes. Wish I could see those dials.

9:12 CDT: [Sean] Palin on Biden’s teacher wife: “God bless her, her reward is in heaven, right?” That is the sound of every teacher in America voting for Barack Obama. Wow. What a mistake.

9:07 CDT: [Sean] It seems the meta thru-line of Governor Palin’s performance tonight is that we need change from the folks who’ve been in Washington for a long time. That can’t be a good thematic element.

Biden, on the other hand, was strongest in the beginning when he was middle classing it up left and right. He’s gotten away from that.

9:00 CDT: [Nate] For those of you with CNN HD, watching the analyst scorecards reminds one an awful lot of watching Olympic Boxing.

VP Debate- BrettMarty.com

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