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Germany had a very good day yesterday, picking up 3 medals in events where little was expected of it, and may have resuscitated its chances of catching up to the United States. Meanwhile, the U.S.’s failure to take gold in ice dancing was a pretty big blow to our ability to win the gold medal count, particularly since Canada came away with the hardware instead.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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