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A bit of a tough day for the United States and the first full day of competition in which they did not medal. Lindsay Jacobellis, widely expected to take home at least a bronze, wiped out in women’s snowcross instead. The hopes of a medal in women’s luge did not materialize. Figure skater Jeremy Abbott bungled his short-program routine, although Evan Lysacek and Johnny Weir did fine. Even the teams in my favorite winter Olympic sport — curling — did poorly, with the American men and women combining to go 0-3 in their respective round robins.

The USA has now fallen slightly behind both Canada and Germany in the medal projections, which you can find below the jump, although it remains exceptionally competitive with each nation projected to take home around 30 pieces of hardware. The country having the best Olympics so far? France, whose 7 medals to date are twice as many as expected.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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