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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

I wish pollsters were a little more consistent in when they released their data. Otherwise, there is no particularly good time of day for the polling thread. Among the more prolific pollsters, SurveyUSA and ARG tend to release their polls in the afternoon; Mason-Dixon and Quinnipiac in the early AM; Zogby in the middle of the night, and Rasmussen is all over the board. But since I don’t keep a particularly consistent schedule either, I suppose that’s neither here nor there.

Two polls out tonight. In Georgia, Rasmuseen shows John McCain with a 51-41 lead over Barack Obama. All of the Georgia polling has been pretty consistent, showing a lead of somewhere between 10 and 14 points for McCain. This may be because opinion of Barack Obama is pretty well polarized in Georgia (and elsewhere in the South). 34 percent have a very favorable impression of Obama — presumably this includes the usual mix of African-Americans, college kids, and urban professionals in Georgia’s burgeoning tech sector. But 36 percent have a very unfavorable view of Obama. With those goalposts set up, the polls are likely to be fairly stubborn in Georgia unless Bob Barr’s candidacy gains traction (he was not included in this poll).

In Washington, SurveyUSA shows Obama with an impressive 17-point lead over John McCain. Obama is now a 97 percent favorite to win Washington. The Washington poll is noteworthy as being the first statewide survey completed in its entirety following Hillary Clinton’s endorsement of Obama. Obama had an 89-7 lead among Democrats in this poll.

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