For a better browsing experience, please upgrade your browser.

FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Several new polls across the wire tonight, but none of them are particularly consequential.

In Kentucky, a Research 2000 poll for WBKO shows John McCain leading Barack Obama by a 25-point margin, and McCain leading Hillary Clinton by 12 points. The poll also shows Clinton with a 27-point lead in the Democratic primary.

We also have a couple of polls from Rasmussen. In Michigan, John McCain holds a 1 point lead over Barack Obama, while he and Hillary Clinton are tied. This is fairly consistent with previous Rasmussen polling of the state, although it’s actually the first Michigan poll I can find where Hillary Clinton outpolled Barack Obama by any margin.

A commenter has also teased Rasmussen results in Virginia and North Carolina. In North Carolina, John McCain holds a 3-point lead over both Democrats. In Virginia, he leads Obama by 3 points and Clinton by 6.

Overall, this is a fairly neutral set of polling for both Democrats. Obama is harmed slightly by the Michigan result, but helped slightly by polls showing him competitive in both Virginia and North Carolina. Clinton, who had gone through a phase where she was polling very poorly in the South, now looks more viable in North Carolina and Virginia, but is harmed by the result in Kentucky, where she had closed to within 2 points of McCain in SurveyUSA’s latest poll.

EDIT: Last night’s run introduced a bug wherein some of the sample sizes were mapping to the wrong polls. This has now been fixed. Clinton has actually surpassed Obama in Win Percentage for the first time, although Obama leads in average electoral votes as well as the popular vote.

Filed under , , , ,

comments Add Comment

Powered by WordPress.com VIP