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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

I don’t want to make a habit of this, but with four new polls out, there’s enough for a midday update. And there’s something for everyone to be happy (and unhappy) about.

In Virginia, SurveyUSA shows Barack Obama 7 points ahead of John McCain, a major reversal from last month when Obama was 8 points behind. The truth, assuredly, lies somewhere in between, and our weighted averages give McCain a 2-point lead in Virginia. Hillary Clinton’s matchup was not polled by SurveyUSA.

But in Nevada, Rasmussen has Hillary Clinton ahead of John McCain by 5 points, whereas Obama trails him by 6. Rasmussen’s last poll in Nevada was also somewhat tough on Obama (he was down by 3) but this is a major reversal for Clinton, who had been 10 points behind.

Rasmussen also polled California, showing 14- and 21- point leads for Obama and Hillary Clinton, respectively. Finally, a new Rocky Mountain poll in Arizona has John McCain 11 points ahead of Obama and 15 points ahead of Clinton.

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