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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

There is no new state polling today, but I have rolled forward the numbers based on the continual good performance for Barack Obama in the national trackers and the latest several editions of the Economist/YouGov poll, which is conducted on a weekly basis but updated on the Economist’s website only occasionally. The downtrend in Obama’s numbers since the July 4 holiday has now completely flattened out, though we will need a lot more information to determine whether it has reversed itself. I also fixed a small bug in the model that was causing the state-by-state implementation of the trendline adjustment to behave oddly.

A few miscellaneous items:

- Perhaps the most comprehensive study I have seen on the Bradley/Wilder effect so far in this cycle was conducted by Harvard political scientist Dan Hopkins and is available for your perusal here (PDF). Hopkins’ conclusion: the Bradley Effect may have been real in the late 1980s and early 1990s, but does not not appear to exist any more, and in fact there is some (weak) evidence of a reverse Bradley effect. This finding is broadly consistent with the (far less rigorous) studies I have done on the issue.

- I will be on the Brian Lehrer Show on WNYC Radio tomorrow morning at approximately 10 AM Eastern.

- Karl Rove is an occasional reader.

- Speaking of conservatives, I saw Reihan Salam on David Gregory’s show the other day. He is perhaps the right’s best answer to Rachel Maddow — someone who has a strong point of view without being predictable about it — and is deserving of more airtime.

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