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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

There’s just one state poll out today. In Oklahoma, the latest Sooner Poll from the Tulsa World and KOTV has John McCain leading Barack Obama by 32 points, 56-24. This poll had last been in the field in late January, then showing McCain with a 28-point lead. There’s not much that can be gathered from an Oklahoma poll, although it might auger poorly for any chance Obama might have to close the gap in states like Kansas, Arkansas, and Texas.

Meanwhile, we have two more days’ worth of national tracking poll results to look at, and they continue to show a nearly-tied race, as both Gallup and Rasmussen have Barack Obama ahead by just a single percentage point. Obama’s win percentage has ticked downward slightly as a result — from 67.6 percent on Friday to 66.1 percent today — but the model will need more confirmation from other state and national polling before a larger correction takes place.

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