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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Sort of the calm before the storm here in Denver, where I’m fired up and ready to go take a nap.

Three firms snuck polls in overnight. Here in Colorado, Suffolk University has Barack Obama ahead by 5 points. I think a touch of skepticism is warranted about this poll, simply because Suffolk has never before polled Colorado, but we certainly have a wide mix of polling in Colorado, with no fewer than seven firms having released numbers within the past couple weeks. It all points toward a toss-up, perhaps just slightly tilting toward Barack Obama.

In Michigan, the EPIC-MRA poll for the Detroit News has Obama ahead by 2, the same margin he held last month. Obama’s win percentage moved down a bit in Michigan, not necessarily because of this poll, but because the house effects adjustment that we introduced this morning took a couple of points off the very favorable (+7) poll that he got from Ann Selzer last week.

And in Ohio, the Columbus Dispatch poll has made its first appearance, showing John McCain ahead 42-41. The Columbus Dispatch poll, which is conducted by forms mailed out to registered voters and voluntarily returned by mail, is infamous for being the lowest-rated poll in our database, having held the bottom spot since the Nauoo Expositor poll, which was conducted by carrier pigeon, was officially discontinued after mistakenly having projected a landslide victory for the Constitutional Union party in the election of 1860.

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