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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Saturdays are typically slow days for polling, and this one is no exception. In Mississippi, Rasmussen shows John McCain ahead by 13 points. That’s essentially unchanged from Rasmussen’s result in July, when McCain led by 12, but an improvement over polls in June and July, when Obama was in the single digits.

That’s the only new data we have for you today, except for the national trackers, both of which show Obama ahead by 2 points.

Today’s numbers are of some significance, though, as they represent the last real clean read that we’ll get on the election before the conventions (even tomorrow’s numbers may begin to be impacted by Obama’s VP bounce, if he gets one). So for purposes of establishing a baseline, the RCP average shows Obama ahead by 1.6 points, Pollster.com by 1.4 points, and our numbers, which for whatever reason have usually been the most McCain-friendly, show Obama ahead by a mere 0.1 points.

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