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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

The headliner tonight is in Virginia, where Rasmussen has Barack Obama moving into a tiny, 1-point lead after having trailed John McCain by 3 points in May. Virginia has been a target of Democrats from the get-go in this campaign, but it’s of particular importance to Obama because it enables another series of parlays for winning the election. If Plan A was holding the Kerry states and winning Ohio, and Plan B was winning Iowa and 2-3 of the Southwestern swing states, Plan C is winning the Kerry states plus Iowa and Virginia, which would get him to 272 electoral votes.

Two other polling results also show a bounce for Obama. In Kansas, John McCain leads by 10 in a Rasmussen poll; he had led by 22 a month ago. And in New York (which is polled way more than it needs to be), Obama leads by 18 in a Siena poll, up from 11 last month. If you mapped the states out in n-dimensional space according to their demographic characteristics, New York, Virginia and Kansas would form something of an equilateral triangle. Obama has received a pretty significant bounce in each of them, suggesting that his uptick is fairly widespread.

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