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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

In Michigan, Rasmussen shows Barack Obama with a 45-42 lead over John McCain. In Rasmussen’s Michigan poll from last month, Obama had trailed by one point. In New York, Quinnipiac has Barack Obama ahead by 14 points. While this result is not inherently all that surprising, it does represent a 6-point improvement from Quinnipiac’s prior poll of the state.

There have now been six polls that were in the field since the Democratic primaries were concluded, and for which we have a previous trendline against which to compare. Barack Obama has gained ground in all six of those polls; his average bounce has been about 5 points.

GA    Rasmussen 5/6    -14      Rasmussen 6/4    -10
NJ Rasmussen 3/27 -1 Rasmussen 6/4 +9
WI Rasmussen 5/5 -4 Rasmussen 6/5 +2
NY Quinnipiac 4/15 +8 Quinnipiac 6/6 +14
WA SurveyUSA 5/17 +16 SurveyUSA 6/8 +17
MI Rasmussen 5/7 -1 Rasmussen 6/9 +3
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AVG +0.7 +5.8

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