For a better browsing experience, please upgrade your browser.

## Politics

In Michigan, Rasmussen shows Barack Obama with a 45-42 lead over John McCain. In Rasmussen’s Michigan poll from last month, Obama had trailed by one point. In New York, Quinnipiac has Barack Obama ahead by 14 points. While this result is not inherently all that surprising, it does represent a 6-point improvement from Quinnipiac’s prior poll of the state.

There have now been six polls that were in the field since the Democratic primaries were concluded, and for which we have a previous trendline against which to compare. Barack Obama has gained ground in all six of those polls; his average bounce has been about 5 points.

GA    Rasmussen 5/6    -14      Rasmussen 6/4    -10NJ    Rasmussen 3/27   -1       Rasmussen 6/4    +9WI    Rasmussen 5/5    -4       Rasmussen 6/5    +2NY    Quinnipiac 4/15  +8       Quinnipiac 6/6   +14WA    SurveyUSA 5/17   +16      SurveyUSA 6/8    +17MI    Rasmussen 5/7    -1       Rasmussen 6/9    +3-----------------------------------------------------AVG                    +0.7                      +5.8

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

Filed under , ,

All Nate Silver

### Pols And Polls Say The Same Thing: Jeb Bush Is A Weak Front-RunnerJun 15, 2015

All Politics

Never miss the best of FiveThirtyEight.

Subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Newsletter
×

Sign up for our newsletters to keep up with our favorite articles, charts and regressions. We have three on offer: a curated digest of the best of FiveThirtyEight from the past week; The Week In Data, our weekly look at the best data journalism from around the web; and Significant Digits, our roundup of numbers in the news. Enter your email below, and we’ll be in touch.

By clicking subscribe, you agree to the FanBridge Privacy Policy

Powered by WordPress.com VIP