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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Rasmussen has new surveys out in Missouri and Georgia, two states that have been somewhat underpolled.

In Missouri, John McCain leads Barack Obama by 6 points and Hillary Clinton by 2. These numbers are actually an improvement for both Democrats from Rasmussen’s previous poll of the state. Nevertheless, Missouri certainly looks to us like a stronger state for Barack Obama than for Hillary Clinton Hillary Clinton than for Barack Obama, as there are enough of those Appalachian voters in the Southeast portion of the state to take a couple of points off Barack Obama’s margin. What’s interesting is that you won’t hear the Clinton campaign talk much about Missouri, because it somewhat defies the connection between performance in the general election and in the primaries. That is, by trumpeting their superior polling in Missouri, the Clinton campaign would open up the door for Obama to point out that he’s polled stronger in states like Michigan, Nevada and New Mexico, in spite of losing (or not competing in) those primaries.

In Georgia, John McCain leads Obama by 14 points and Clinton by 11. Our regression model insists that Barack Obama should be able to do somewhat better than this in Georgia. It’s a very young state, and it has higher education levels and more of a white professional class than other states in its region. But so far, those results have not shown up in the polling.

Also, in Texas, a Research 2000 poll conducted on behalf of Daily Kos has John McCain leading Barack Obama by 13 and Hillary Clinton by 15. Overall, it’s not a particularly good polling day for the Democrats in the Southern states.

Finally, I’d like to thank Mark Blumenthal of the National Journal and Pollster.com and Meteor Blades at Daily Kos for their kind words today.

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