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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

A strange mix of polling data today:

The most significant result is probably the EPIC-MRA poll in Michigan, which shows the same four-point margin for McCain that SurveyUSA showed yesterday. Also like the SurveyUSA poll, this one had a conspicuously high number of undecideds. My sense is that this probably has something to do with Obama not having campaigned in Michigan during the primary cycle and that the state will probably lean his way in the long run. At the same time, Michigan is a state that has a significant amount of affection for John McCain, and his fundraising has been strong there.

I’m quite honestly at a loss as to how to explain the couple of Rasmussen results in Alabama and Mississippi. Demographically, the states are nearly identical. The Obama campaign has made some overtures about wanting to compete in Mississippi specifically, and it rarely hurts a candidate to call out the importance of a particular state. There might also be some lingering bitterness among Mississippians directed at the Republican Party over Trent Lott. But in the long-run, I don’t see how you’re going to get a 6-point margin in one state and a 28-point margin in the other.

Finally, for those of you wondering what in the hell that Texas poll is, that survey (from Baselice & Associates, Inc.) can be found here.

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