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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Happy Memorial Day, everyone.

In Kentucky, Rasmussen has John McCain with a 25-point lead over Barack Obama. Hillary Clinton, however, leads McCain by 9 points.

This result is nothing new for Obama, who has trailed McCain in other Kentucky polls by margins ranging from 21 to 36 points. Hillary Clinton showing a lead, however — and a fairly meaningful one at that — is a new development. Significantly, this was the first Kentucky poll taken after that state’s primary was completed. Clinton, I think, has tapped into some sort of anti-elite backlash in Kentucky, which might help her numbers against McCain (never much of a ‘Bubba’ himself) as much as they did against Obama. How much of this would hold up after a general election campaign, however, is anybody’s guess.

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