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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

In Montana, Mason-Dixon has John McCain 8 points ahead of Barack Obama and 11 points ahead of Hillary Clinton. These results might be considered mildly disappointing for Obama, which at times has looked like a potential swing state. But he may have the chance to improve on those numbers by campaigning in the state’s primary. On that front, the news is good for him: he leads Clinton by 17 in their head-to-head matchup.

Also, in Minnesota, Rasmussen shows safe 15-point leads for both Democrats. Minnesota may not be a swing state this year, particularly if Obama is the nominee.

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