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In California, an LA Times poll shows the race a little tighter than expected: Barack Obama leads John McCain by 7 points, and Hillary Clinton leads him by 3. Although ordinarily Clinton’s relatively small margin would be newsworthy, there have been three other California polls released within the past week and none of them show the race this close. We still have each Democrat at about 95 percent to win the Golden State.

Also, in North Carolina, Civitas has John McCain 5 points ahead of Barack Obama; McCain had been 9 points ahead in Civitas’ April release. Civitas has ceased surveying the Clinton-McCain matchup.

We’re on vacation the next couple of days so updates are likely to be limited to a polling thread or two. Fortunately it looks to be a slow weekend in the political world as well.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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