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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

In Iowa, Rasmussen has Barack Obama beating John McCain by 2 points, and Hillary Clinton trailing McCain by 3 points. Obama’s result is consistent with previous Rasmussen polling of the state, whereas Clinton’s position has significantly improved.

In Arkansas, it’s Clinton +14 and Obama -24 against McCain. That’s one of the more dramatic differences you’re likely to see in any given state. Rasmussen is now in line with other polls in Arkansas, which show Clinton with a safe-looking lead in the state; she had actually trailed by 7 in Rasmussen’s previous poll. Believe it or not, this is also an improvement for Obama from Rasmussen’s last poll of Arkansas, which had him down by 29.

In Washington, SurveyUSA has Obama +12 and Clinton +4. McCain has made some nosies about wanting to compete in the Pacific Northwest region. That might be a decent idea against Clinton, but it’s a poor one against Obama, who runs very strongly in the Pac Northwest.

Finally, we’ve figured out how to accommodate yesterday’s Georgia poll, which showed Obama trailing by 14 and did not poll the Clinton matchup. Clinton’s result will be listed as “no poll” in our tables and the result will not affect her averages.

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