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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

In Pennsylvania, a Susquehanna poll offers good news for both Democrats: Hillary Clinton leads John McCain by 11 points, whereas Barack Obama leads him by 7. Pennsylvania has almost moved into the territory where it is a safe state for Clinton, as her win percentage there is now 80 percent. Obama’s win percentage in Pennsylvania has bumped up slightly to 61 percent.

In North Carolina, PPP‘s monthly tracker has John McCain leading Barack Obama by 7 points, and Hillary Clinton by 8. There appears to be a lot of noise in the North Carolina data, with some polls showing Obama doing as well as having tied McCain while others show him 8 or 9 points back, but this really just looks like some fairly natural variance around a mean of about 5-6 points. Obama may have a means to win North Carolina if he can increase African-American turnout.

Two quick notes: I should have some sort of reflection on West Virginia going up tonight. And given Bob Barr’s entry into the race today, it’s very much worth your time to read Dave Weigel’s preview of the libertarian nomination fight. Barr is the most likely nominee, though by no means a certain one.

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