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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Rasmussen has a poll out in my favorite state in the country. Obama has a 10-point over advantage, and Hillary a 5-point advantage, over John McCain in the state of Maine.

Maine is a state I’d been curious about as being a potential swing state in a Hillary-McCain matchup. Maine has a substantial anti-establishment streak, which probably works better for McCain or Obama than for Clinton, and meanwhile, Hillary’s fundraising has been slack there. On the other hand, this is a state that has no trouble electing female politicians, and the polling numbers give Hillary no real reason to worry as of yet.

Also, you’ll notice that the weights of the polls have changed; this is a response to the good discussion we had in this thread about the relationship between sample sizes and the pollster reliability ratings. I’ve done a lot of thinking about this and have come up with a solution that I think is pretty good, but am going to ask your indulgence as it’s a busy time and it will probably be a couple of days before I get the chance to explain everything.

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