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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

The only general election poll today is from Arizona, where Rasmussen has John McCain leading Barack Obama by 20 points, and Hillary Clinton by 28.

For the record, I would guess that the Arizona polls will close a bit — I haven’t verified this, but it seems likely that home state candidates have an especially large advantage early in the election cycle, when name recognition reigns supreme. Even in the best of times, however, Arizona — with its older population and its stronger Republican institutions — is the weakest of our four Southwest states for Obama, and it certainly won’t be competitive against John McCain.

I’ve also added in the latest fundraising numbers from the FEC, which impact the regression numbers at the margins.

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