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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

If you’re a Wisconsin Democrat, it’s been a rough couple of days. A new Rasmussen poll of the Badger State has McCain leading Obama by 2, and leading Clinton by 11.

This result is actually pretty consistent with Rasmussen’s previous poll of Wisconsin, taken in late February, that showed Obama leading McCain by 1, but McCain leading Clinton by 12.

Nevertheless, it has been a poor week of polling for the Democrats, and especially for Hillary Clinton. Since one week ago today, the totality of polls we’ve posted have had her leading: by 3 in Connecticut, by 3 in California, and by 1 in Nevada. But trailing: by 3 in Washington, by 6 in Oregon, by 7 in Arkansas, by 9 in Missouri, by 11 in Wisconsin, by 16 in North Carolina, and by 22 in Virginia. Of those results, probably only the Nevada poll can be called good news for her.

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