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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Just one poll today — and we’re on the road — so we’ll be brief. The poll is out of Arkansas, where Rasmussen reports that John McCain is leading Hillary Clinton by 7 points and Barack Obama by 29 points in Arkansas.

This is one of those polls that, although the losing margin is much uglier for Obama, is actually worse news for Hillary because Arkansas is a state that she was expecting to win, whereas Obama has always polled badly there. Why Obama has polled so badly in Arkansas is an open question: the Arkansas is actually fairly reliably Democratic at the state level, and a plurality of the state’s voters (41%) described their party ID as Democrat in 2004 exit polling. And for Clinton, there’s an open question about whether something is happening to her numbers in the South: this is the second straight poll that has come in much below expectations for her in the region, following yesterday’s Rasmussen poll of Georgia.

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