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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Happy Earth Day, everyone.

We have one general election poll today from New York, where Siena is the latest pollster to show a relatively tight race in the Empire State. Barack Obama leads John McCain by 5 points (45-40), whereas Hillary Clinton leads him by 4 (46-42). Interestingly, perhaps, Clinton’s favorability ratings are also mediocre, at 48/46 (Obama is 54/34).

I refuse to believe that New York is going to be competitive in the fall — but nevertheless this poll is revealing of a couple of things: (i) John McCain fares much better along the East Coast than your ordinary Republican; (ii) the tenor of Democratic primary race is presently causing a lot of crossover voting among registered Democrats; (iii) Hillary Clinton does not get much of a home state advantage in New York.

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