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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

This is an update and probably the last one. Those of you who are interested in extending the analysis (there are undoubtedly many events missing, although most of the major ones should now be covered) are encouraged to do so at Wikipedia or elsewhere.

But, based on news accounts of 306 “Tea Party” protests in different cities across the country yesterday, I get a cumulative attendance of 262,025, with a fair number of (probably mostly smaller) events still unaccounted for.

These figures, wherever possible, are drawn from objective attempts to estimate crowd sizes, such as police accounts or estimates made by reporters. Organizers of these events have strong incentives to exaggerate crowd sizes. Participants in them may have some of the same incentives, and it is notoriously difficult for people to accurately estimate crowd sizes once attendance has reached more than a few dozen individuals.

Atlanta, GA – 7,000 (per archived article; since changed to “thousands”)
Denver, CO – 5,000
Phoenix, AZ – 5,000
Madison, WI – 5,000
Bossier City, LA – 5,000
San Antonio, TX – 4,500
Olympia, WA – 4,500 (average of two estimates)
Lansing, MI – 4,500 (average of two estimates)
Jacksonville, FL – 4,500
Oklahoma City, OK – 4,500 (average of two estimates)
Dallas, TX – 4,000
Fort Myers, FL – 4,000
Fort Worth, TX – 3,750 (average of two estimates)
Indianapolis, IN – 3,625 (average of two estimates)
Vero Beach, FL – 3,500
Sacramento, CA – 3,500 (average of two estimates)
Tulsa, OK – 3,200
Hartford, CT – 3,000
Sioux Falls, SD – 3,000
Cincinnati, OH – 3,000 (average of two estimates)
Naples, FL – 3,000 (two events)
Nashville, TN – 2,900
Annapolis, MD – 2,750 (average of two estimates)
Bakersfield, CA – 2,650 (two events)
Columbia, SC – 2,650 (average of two estimates)
Jackson, MS – 2,500
Boise, ID – 2,500
Charleston, SC – 2,500
Spokane, WA – 2,300
Havasu, AZ – 2,250
Chattanooga, TN – 2,000
Stuart, FL – 2,000
Grand Junction, CO – 2,000
Colorado Springs, CO – 2,000
Pleasanton, CA – 2,000
Wheeling, WV – 2,000
Columbus, IN – 2,000
St. Paul, MN – 2,000
New York, NY – 2,000
Houston, TX – 2,000
Huntsville, AL – 2,000
Des Monies, IA – 2,000 (average of two estimates)
Troy, MI – 2,000
Prescott, AZ – 2,000
Providence, RI – 2,000
Belton, TX – 2,000
Chicago, IL – 2,000
Carson City, NV – 2,000
Fort Lauderdale, FL – 1,750
Tucson, AZ – 1,750 (average of two estimates)
Augusta, GA – 1,700
Knoxville, TN – 1,700
Anchorage, AK – 1,500
Tyler, TX – 1,500
Bellingham, WA – 1,500
Deland, FL – 1,500
Salt Lake City, UT – 1,500 (average of two estimates)
Salem, OR – 1,500 (average of two estimates)
Austin, TX – 1,250 (average of two estimates)
New Bern, NC – 1,200
Raleigh, NC – 1,200
Lynchburg, VA – 1,200
Seattle, WA – 1,100
Waco, TX – 1,100
Washington, DC – 1,000
Temecula, CA – 1,000
Palm Springs, CA – 1,000
Hudsonville, MI – 1,000
Fort Collins, CO – 1,000
Kansas City, MO – 1,000
Marble Falls, TX – 1,000
Manchester, NH – 1,000
Baxter, AR – 1,000
Yuma, AZ – 1,000
Lisle, IL – 1,000
Plymouth, MI – 1,000
Des Moines, IA – 1,000
Mobile, AL – 1,000
Seal Beach, CA – 1,000
Oceanside, CA – 1,000
Ocala, FL – 1,000
Cullman, AL – 1,000
Memphis, TN – 1,000
Greensboro, NC 1,000
Albuquerque, NM – 1,000
New Haven, CT – 1,000
Montgomery, AL – 1,000
Natrona, WY – 1,000
Albany, NY – 1,000
Rapid City, SD – 1,000
Loveland, CO – 1,000
Ventura, CA – 1,000
Wichita, KS – 1,000
Portland, OR – 1,000
Gainesville, FL – 1,000
San Jose, CA – 1,000
Gilbert, AZ – 1,000
Louisville, KY – 1,000
Fresno, CA – 1,000
Joplin, MO – 1,000
Santa Ana, CA – 1,000
Baton Rouge, LA – 1,000
Denton, TX – 950
Winston-Salem, NC – 900
Wasilla, AK – 850
Astacadero, CA – 850
Abilene, TX – 800
Doral, FL – 800
Wichita Falls, TX – 800
Rochester, NY – 750
Fayetteville, AR – 700 (average of two estimates)
Virginia Beach, VA – 650
Pocatello, ID – 650 (average of two estimates)
Longview, TX – 650
Farmington, NM – 600
Morristown, NJ – 600 (average of three estimates)
Duluth, MN – 600 (average of two estimates)
Yakima, WA – 600
Tuscaloosa, AL – 600
Concord, NH – 600
Monterey, CA – 600
Ashland, OH – 600
Matamoras, PA – 600
West Palm Beach, FL – 600
Charleston, WV – 550 (average of two estimates)
Billings, MT – 500
Peoria, IL – 500
Piscataway, NJ – 500
Port St. Lucie, FL – 500
Boston, MA – 500
Pensacola, FL – 500
San Diego, CA – 500
Redlands, CA – 500
Corpus Christi, TX – 500
Las Vegas, NV – 500
Santa Rosa, CA – 500
St. Simons Island, FL – 500
Chico, CA – 500
Burleson, TX – 500
Lisbon, OH – 500
Naperville, IL – 500
Tampa, FL – 500
Southlake, TX – 500
San Francisco, CA – 500
Little Rock, AR – 500
Montpelier, VT – 500
Missoula, MT – 500
Fishersville, VA – 500
Myrtle Beach, SC – 500
Fort Smith, AR – 500
Marietta, WV – 500
Pearland, TX – 450
St. Cloud, MN – 450
Jackson, MI – 450
Hollidaysburg, PA – 450
Springfield, IL – 400
Livonia, MI – 400
Champaign, IL – 400
Elba, AL – 400
Valdosta, GA – 400
Trenton, NJ – 400
Syracuse, NY – 400
Abingdon, VA – 400
Lancaster, PA – 400
Modesto, CA – 400
Chillicothe, OH – 400
Edenton, NC – 400
Gardiner, NY – 400
Florence, AL – 350
Thousand Oaks, CA – 338 (average of two estimates)
Sandusky, OH – 300
Friendswood, TX – 300
Fayetteville, NC – 300 (two events)
Camdenton, MO – 300
Bangor, ME – 300
Cheyenne, WY – 300
Muskegon, MI – 300
Joliet, IL – 300
Rutland, VT – 300
Massapequa, NY – 300
Lakewood Ranch, FL – 300
Harrisburg, IL – 300
Fon du Lac, WI – 300
Minden, LA – 300
York, SC – 300
New Braunfels, TX – 300
Parkersburg, WV – 300
Goldsboro, NC – 300
Martinsburg, WV – 300
Borger, TX – 275
Elizabethtown, KY – 275
Glendale, CA – 275 (average of two estimates)
Bethlehem, PA – 275 (average of two estimates)
Ashtabula, OH – 275
Chelsea, MI – 250
Newport News, VA – 250
San Mateo, CA – 250
Cody, WY – 250 (average of two estimates)
Frankfort, KY – 250
Miami, OK – 250
Gilmer, TX – 250
Norwalk, OH – 250
Craig, CO – 221
Hannibal, MO – 200
Ann Arbor, MI – 200
Seguin, TX – 200
Neunan, GA – 200
Merced, CA – 200
Pismo Beach, CA – 200
Coldwater, MI – 200
Dickinson, ND – 200
Fort Scott, KS – 200
Reno, NV – 200
Rockford, IL – 200
Flemington, NJ – 200
Bellevue, WA – 200
Palmer Township, PA – 200
Youngstown, OH – 200
Helena, MT – 200
Fayetteville, GA – 200
Crystal Lake, IL – 200
Bartow, FL – 200
Scranton, PA – 200
Rowlett, TX – 200
Dekalb, AL – 200
Portsmouth, NH – 200
Rochester, NH – 200
Mankato, MN – 200
Greenville, NC – 200
Ada, OK – 200
Superior, WI – 200
Bloomington, IN – 200
Oswego, IL – 200
Philadelphia, PA – 200
Yucaipa, CA – 200
Stockton, CA – 200
Reading, PA – 150
Buffalo, NY – 150
Watkinsville, GA – 150
Pullman, WA – 150
South Kitsap, WA – 150
Baltimore, MD – 150
Currituck, NC – 150
Elizabeth City, NC – 150
Simi Valley, CA – 150
Kalispell, MT – 150
Omaha, NE – 150
Council Bluffs, IA – 150
Evansville, IN – 150 (average of two estimates)
Albany, OR – 140
Dover, NH – 125
Boiling Springs, SC – 120
San Bernardino, CA – 100
Kingston, NY – 100
Camden, NY – 100
Moscow, ID – 100
Anderson, IN – 100
Bremerton, WA – 100
Chico, WA – 100
Oak Harbor, WA – 100
Meridian, MS – 100
Staunton, VA – 100
Cedar Rapids, IA – 100
Gastonia, NC – 100
Bristol, TN – 100
Greenville, TN – 100
Shelton, CT – 100
Glenwood Springs, CO – 100
Marion, IL – 100
Plattsburgh, NY – 100
Crown Point, IN- 100
Pittsfield, NY – 100
Vineland, NJ – 100
San Marcos, TX – 90
Milwaukee, WI – 80
Fort Mill, SC – 80
Cotulla, TX – 80
Chester, NY – 80
Bradenton, FL – 75
Natchez, MS – 75
Corona, CA – 65 (two events)
Herrin, IL – 65
West Covina, CA – 60
Newark, NJ – 50
Opelousas, AL – 50
Nicholson, GA – 50
Napa, CA – 50
North Platte, NE – 50
Oakland, CA – 50
Frisco, CO – 50
Pittsburg/Antoich, CA – 50
Carbondale, IL – 50
Sevierville, TN – 40
Carterville, IL – 40
Nobelsville, IN – 35
Gadsden, AL – 35
Pataskala, OH – 30
Green Cove Springs, FL – 30
Richmond, CA – 30
Selma, AL – 30
Lake City, WA – 24
Bound Book, NJ – 20
Plainville, CT – 13
Sitka, AK – 12
Fort Plain, NY – 12

I present this data merely as a reference; it is not intended as a value judgment about the success of the protests or their lack thereof. One should bear in mind that ours is a large country, and that gatherings of this magnitude (if several hundred individual protests can be thought of as a “gathering”) are not especially uncommon. For instance, protests in favor of immigration reform drew several million participants in the spring of 2006, including several individual events of at least 300,000. Likewise, anti-war protests in 2003 involved attendance of at least 300,000 in a single American city (New York) on a single day.

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