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Politics

Obama versus McCain:

Obama has a 63.3% win percentage, winning 293.1 electoral votes on average, with a +2.1% two-way popular vote share.

Safe Obama (90%+): 13 States, 170 EV
DC (3 EV, 100%)
VT (3, 100%)
IL (27, 100%)
HI (4, 100%)
CT (7, 99%)
CA (55, 98%) – Survey USA’s California polls have been slightly flaky, but no reason to believe California is competitive
RI (4, 96%)
ME (4, 96%)
NY (31, 95%)
MD (10, 94%)
WA (11, 93%) — Big difference between Clinton and Obama on this one. Obama has big enough leads in the several Survey USA surveys that these plus the favorable result from the regression are enough not to sweat the Rasmussen poll that has him -1.
IA (7, 90%) — Impressive considering that it was Red in 2004, but lots of polling data here.

Solid Obama (75-90%): 7 States, 50 EV
MA (12, 89%) – Survey USA just hasn’t liked him here and his numbers are boosted by the regression estimate. Obama did fundraise very well in Massachusetts and it’s hard to see what gives. Maybe Massachusetts voters are taking revenge on the modestly unpopular Deval Patrick by proxy?
DE (3, 88%)
CO (9, 84%)
NH (4, 84%)
WI (10, 81%)
OR (7, 81%)
NM (5, 76%)

Leans Obama (55-75%), 4 States, 57 EV
MI (17, 75%) — Yes, I think he’d do fine in a redo primary/caucus there. Culturally, Michigan is probably closer to the Wisconsin end of the spectrum than the Ohio end.
NV (5, 71%)
OH (20, 67%) — Seems a little optimistic
NH (15, 63%) — Seems a little pessimistic

Toss-Up (45-55%), 3 States, 37 EV
PA (21, 54%)
VA (13, 51%)
ND (3, 50%) — Yes, that’s North Dakota.

Leans McCain (25%-45%), 3 states, 29 EV
MO (11, 44%)
SD (3, 30%)
NC (15, 26%)

Solid McCain (10-25%), 8 states, 97 EV
NE (5, 25%) – We do account for the potential electoral vote split by Congressional District in Nebraska (as well as in Maine). There are actually some very big differences in the voting patterns of CD-3 (Western Nebraska) and the other two CDs in the Eastern Part of the state. If Obama stays within single digits in the state overall, he has a decent chance of picking up the Omaha CD. If he stays within five points, he could pick up both CD-1 and CD-2.
MT (3, 21%)
FL (27, 20%)
AK (3, 19%)
SC (8, 18%) — I’m a little skeptical about the SC results for both Clinton and McCain
KS (6, 14%)
IN (11, 12%) — I wonder how much of this is name recognition from Indiana sharing Chicago TV markets.
TX (34, 11%)

Safe McCain (0-10%), 13 states, 98 EV
GA (15, 6%)
LA (9, 5%)
AZ (10, 5%)
UT (5, 5%) — I was stunned that SUSA had him reasonably close here, but he fundraised very well in this state.
ID (4, 4%)
WV (5, 3%) — Obama really struggled in the regions bordering WV in the Ohio primary
TN (11, 2%) — Culturally conservative Southern state without a lot of black people; these are Obama’s nightmare states.
MS (6, 2%)
WY (3, 1%)
AR (6, 0%) — Possible he could leverage Clinton coattails if he wins the nomination, but there are probably better places to spend resources.
AL (9, 0%)
KY (8, 0%)
OK (7, 0%)

Clinton versus McCain:

Clinton has a 43.9% win percentage, winning 256.0 electoral votes on average, with a -0.4% two-way popular vote share.

Safe Clinton (90%+): 7 States, 129 EV
DC (3 EV, 100%)
NY (31, 99%)
RI (4, 98%)
MA (12, 96%)
CA (55, 95%)
VT (3, 92%)
IL (21, 90%) — Could this be the epicenter of a backlash if Obama lost the nomination at the convention? Illinois is probably too blue, but might be worth some early visits by McCain.

Solid Clinton (75-90%): 5 states, 42 EV
AR (6, 87%)
CT (7, 86%)
MD (10, 85%)
NJ (15, 80%)
ME (4, 78%) — My gut-feel says McCain could make a play here, given Maine’s strong independent streak.

Leans Clinton (55-75%): 5 states, 42 EV
HI (4, 70%)
DE (3, 70%)
OH (20, 61%)
MN (10, 60%)
WV (5, 56%) — The Clintons can potentially put the handful of Appalachian states into play — West Virginia, Arkansas, Tennessee, maybe Kentucky — in a way that few other Democrats can. Certainly more than Kerry could, as well as Obama.


Toss-Up (45-55%): 4 states, 76 EV
MI (17, 50%) — Oddly, Clinton finished with exactly 2,500 wins out of 5,000 trials in both Michigan and Pennsylvania. You don’t get any more tossup-y than that.
PA (21, 50%)
MO (11, 47%)
FL (27, 46%)

Leans McCain (25%-45%), 6 states, 48 EV
WA (11, 40%) — Note the presence of several traditionally blue states here. There’s quite a bit of polling data showing Clinton struggling in Washington.
NM (5, 38%)
TN (11, 36%)
NH (4, 34%)
WI (10, 31%)
OR (7, 27%)

Solid McCain (10%-25%): 9 states, 105 EV
IA (7, 20%) — Arguably not worth competing here
NC (15, 19%) — John Edwards has become a better campaigner since 2004 and ironically could be a more effective surrogate as a free agent than he was as a VP candidate. Interesting state for both Democrats.
NV (5, 18%)
SC (8, 16%)
CO (9, 15%) — Clinton does poorly throughout the Interior West.
MS (6, 14%)
KY (8, 13%)
VA (13, 13%)
TX (34, 12%)

Safe McCain (0-10%): 15 states, 96 EV
LA (9, 10%)
OK (7, 5%)
AL (9, 3%)
SD (3, 3%)
IN (11, 2%)
GA (15, 2%)
KS (6, 2%)
AZ (10, 1%)
MT (3, 1%)
AK (3, 0%)
ND (3, 0%)
NE (5, 0%) — Clinton won’t be close enough to put any of the CD’s in play.
ID (4, 0%)
WY (3, 0%)
UT (5, 0%)

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