For a better browsing experience, please upgrade your browser.

FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Well, it looks like we have a new challenger to the WNBC/Marist poll of New York in the category of “most unlikely poll of the general election season”. In Indiana, the Indianapolis Star has Barack Obama eight points ahead of John McCain in a November trial heat. Hillary Clinton doesn’t do too poorly herself, tying McCain at 46-46.

What’s interesting about this poll is that it was done by one of the best polling agencies on the planet: Selzer & Co, the same organization that is responsible for the Des Moines Register poll in Iowa. Nevertheless, we need treat it with a lot of caution: while Selzer is a good polling firm, so are SurveyUSA and Research 2000, which also have recent polls out in the state, showing Indiana being more competitive than usual but nothing like what Selzer thinks.

But for better or for worse, our model now credits Obama with a 27% chance of winning Indiana — better than traditional swing states like Missouri or new-fangled ones like Virginia — and it has shot up to 5th on his Swing State List.

EARLIER WE WROTE: Research 2000 has some fresh results out of Indiana. In general election trial heats, John McCain leads Barack Obama by 8 points, and Hillary Clinton by 11. These results are not particularly noteworthy, as SurveyUSA has surveyed the hell out of Indiana, and come up with very similar results. Any chance that Barack Obama stands of making the state competitive in November probably depends upon his winning the Indiana primary, and getting the sort of afterglow he’s had in Iowa, where he’s continued to poll very well following his caucus victory in January.

Speaking of the primary, Research 2000 surveyed that too, and found Obama ahead 48-47. Research 2000′s previous poll showed that race: Clinton 49, Obama 46. This poll is significant as being the first survey conducted entirely after the results of the Pennsylvania primary were known.

Filed under ,

comments Add Comment

Powered by WordPress.com VIP