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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Here’s a comparison of Jon Corzine’s vote share in 2005 versus today, in the counties that have represented a decent fraction of their vote.

Taking an unweighted average in these counties, Corzine is running about 8 points off his pace from four years ago, when he won 53.5 percent of the vote. That would put him at 45.5 percent — probably not quite enough to win — but this is an imprecise analysis for a number of reasons and Corzine’s numbers are holding up a bit better in the more vote-heavy counties in North Jersey. And I don’t know to what extent absentee ballots are included or not included in this count, which were thought to favor Corzine.

Still too close to call. Too close to even think about calling.

EDIT: Err… apparently not, as the AP has called the race for Christie. Other networks have not so far. But I’m looking at this one-dimensionally — comparing percentages, but not turnout — whereas hopefully they’re looking at both factors.

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