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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

10:24 CDT: [Sean] I think Nate is onto something. She gave a great speech for someone who would not be vulnerable to hitting back. A keynote, or frankly the Giuliani role. But after giving that speech, if she has any kind of embarrassing moment on the trail, she will be open to serious blowback. That was a Chutzpah Speech for someone with no foreign policy credentials who is fending off the Personal Scandal of the Hour. If she threads the needle and runs a gaffe-free campaign, it might work. But if her amateurism gets exposed in any way during the next few months, look out.

10:13 CDT: [Nate] Not a strikeout. Not a home run. I don’t know. A double, and the runner got thrown out trying to stretch it into a triple?

10:10 CDT: [Sean] McCain onstage, ala Obama after Biden.

10:06 CDT: [Nate] This would be a terrific speech if she were still governor of Alaska and were just delivering a keynote. As a speech for a VP nominee, given all the context of the past few days, it’s more complicated to evaluate.

10:05 CDT: [Nate] OK, now this is too much. They’re starting to overplay their hand.

10:04 CDT: [Sean] Now past prime time. Thanks, Rudy. The attacks are sharp, they are harsh, they are certainly red meat. But what they are doing is painting Obama as someone who is a cynical self-promoter, who doesn’t love his country. I was in that stadium of 84,000 people last week, and I have never seen so many American flags in my life. I think she’s getting the base fired up. I don’t think she’s convincing the persuadables that Obama is a selfish America-hater. There are going to be a lot of smiling faces here in St. Paul in a few minutes as the crowd spills out. But I think there may be some smiling faces in Chicago too.

10:01 CDT: [Nate] I think that whole sequence of attacks against Obama was pretty well done.

9:57 CDT: [Sean] Palin plays the Obama-doesn’t-want-America-to-win card.

9:57 CDT: [Nate] Why haven’t they used that memoirs line before?

9:49 CDT: [Nate] We’re having some server problems tonight, BTW, so sorry if we’re a little slow on the uptake. That Scranton/San Francisco line worked for me a lot better than the community organizer crack. We’re having some server problems tonight, BTW, so sorry if we’re a little slow on the uptake.

9:48 CDT: [Sean] C-Span shows someone being forcefully escorted out by multiple police. Small town mayor mocking Obama now. Is anybody really buying that a glorified city council member is more experienced than a US Senator? The base loves it… but really? Doesn’t this contemptuous tone of voice open up Palin for a catastrophic (non-sexist) Biden dismissal ala Bentsen-Quayle at the debate?

9:44 CDT: [Nate] OK, she seems more comfortable now.

9:41 CDT: [Nate] “Friend and advocate in the White House” is a good, persuadable-voters line. Otherwise, I think she may be making a mistake to start out so heavy on biography.

9:35 CDT: [Sean] The RNC schedule had a Palin video tribute planned, but Rudy was too busy enjoying his 30-minute prime time speech. They scrapped the video.

9:32 CDT: [Nate] The crowd couldn’t love her any more, but for the television audiences, I think she looked a tiny bit lost out there on that huge stage without any sort of build-up.

9:32 CDT: [Sean] 2d American woman accepts nomination of major party for Vice President of the United States.

9:30 CDT: [Sean] Here’s the Big Moment.

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