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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Multiple sources are reporting this morning that Second Circuit appeals judge Sonia Sotomayor will be President Obama’s pick to replace David Souter on the United States Supreme Court.

Although Sotomayor has often been described as the favorite to succeed Souter on the bench, Intrade odds as of this morning had given her just a 20 percent chance to become the next Supreme Court justice, behind others like Elena Kagan and Diane Wood. Moreover, according to the punters at Intrade, Sotomayor’s odds had steadily been falling over the course of the month as she was the subject of a torrent of conservative criticism.

More analysis coming in a moment.

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