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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

We’ll wait until the first of the month to do a more comprehensive update, but a couple of obvious changes in the meantime:

With Kathleen Sebelius’ likely move to HHS, Kansas moves completely off the radar screen.

The Democrats clearly aren’t being helped by Roland Burris’ antics in Illinois, so that race moves up a little — and by the way, I think people are underestimating the probability that this eventually moves in the direction of expulsion. Nevertheless, this is a bit of a mixed bag as far as the Senate seat in 2010 goes, since it now seems highly implausible that Burris will eventually win his party’s nomination, clearing the way for a candidate like Alexi Giannoulias or Jan Schakowsky who might have broader electoral appeal. It won’t be pretty between here and there, but Illinois is a state in which the Democrats have a lot of rope with which to hang themselves.

Chris Dodd’s approval ratings have been so consistently poor that Connecticut makes its first appearance in the Top 15, even though it’s less than clear whether the GOP will be able to nominate a viable alternative.

And Iowa moves down slightly, simply because every month that Chuck Grassley does not retire is a small bit of good news for the GOP.

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