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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

11:34 EDT: [Nate] Daschle was also sporting the SJR glasses in the Frontline special on the candidates last night. (Which you really all should watch right now).

11:24 EDT: [Nate] SurveyUSA California debate-watchers: Obama 56, McCain 28. Among California independents: Obama 55, McCain 29.

11:23 EDT: [Sean] Holy mackerel, what’s with those glasses on Tom Daschle? Did Daschle lose a bet with Sally Jesse Raphael?

11:15 EDT: [Nate] I consider John King to be among most astute commentators out there, but he’s a little bit out of line in critiquing his own poll, which he’s said is skewed toward Democrats (the sample was something like D40, R30). It’s skewed toward Democrats because America is skewed toward Democrats! The party ID split in the country right now is very close to 40/30. There’s no doubt that Obama is going to find it a little bit easier to win these post-debate polls, simply because he has more support to begin with. But when he’s winning every poll and every focus group by 2:1 margins, there are no excuses for McCain … he’s winning his base and just about nobody else. EDIT: Among independent voters in the CNN poll, Obama won 57-31, essentially matching his advantage from among all viewers.

11:04 EDT: [Nate] MediaCurves independents: Obama 60, McCain 30.

11:02 EDT: [Nate] CNN poll from the tee-vee: Obama 58, McCain 31.

11:00 EDT: [Nate] CBS undecideds: Obama 53, McCain 22.

11:00 EDT: [Sean] Hillary Clinton on CNN sounding pretty good. The Clintons need to get their butts to southeast Ohio, West Virginia, and southwest PA. (And Arkansas, dude! – Nate).

10:55 EDT: [Nate] At the end of the day, one of McCain’s problems is that he simply doesn’t own the negativity very well. During the John Lewis sequence, during the ACORN and Ayers stuff, he came across as uncomfortable, insincere, overcoached. In certain ways, his “straight talk” brand plays against him when it seems as though he has trouble believing his own talking points.

10:48 EDT: [Sean] Ohio undecideds on CNN hated Joe the plumber.

10:45 EDT: [Sean] Looks like the Luntz group went Obama. Greta van Sustererereren crestfallen. We’ll get the official numbers momentarily.

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