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It doesn’t look to me like there’s a big enough gap between Bruce Lunsford’s vote and Obama’s, or Roger Wicker’s and Obama’s, to give those states to the Democrats in the Senate.

In Georgia, though, Jim Martin is running about 5 points ahead of Obama. Hang in there for the ATL vote.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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