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I don’t know what compelled Rasmussen to poll South Dakota, but this result was interesting to me as the first Prairie state poll by someone other than Survey USA. And the results are really fairly inconclusive: Obama checks in at a -10, worse than SUSA’s -4, but this comes at a time when he seems to be getting beaten up in all the Rasmussen polls. Hillary is a -12, just like she was in SUSA. Either of these figures are much better than the 21.5 point margin that John Kerry lost the state by in 2004; I certainly don’t think this poll does anything to refute the notion that the electoral map is being redrawn.

Nate Silver is the founder and editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight.

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