For a better browsing experience, please upgrade your browser.



Intrade has Obama trading upward today, presumably on generally favorable reaction to his speech in Philadelphia. This graph is going to be a little hard to see, but…

What this shows is that Obama was trading at about 77% to win the Democratic nomination this time a week ago. Those numbers dropped down to about 72% after the Wright controversy reached full volume. And now, post-speech, they seem to have stabilized in the 75% range.

So Intrade’s snap conclusion is that about 60% of the damage from the Wright controversy (Obama recovered 3 out of 5 percentage points that he had lost) was redeemed by today’s speech.

I’m actually not a huge fan of futures markets, by the way — I love the concept, but think they lack both the liquidity and the highly informed pool of traders to make them truly useful as predictive tools. And I think futures markets really tend to be lagging rather than leading indicators. But, they can be a pretty interesting way to put a quantitative spin on the conventional wisdom.

Filed under , , , ,

Comments Add Comment

Never miss the best of FiveThirtyEight.

Subscribe to the FiveThirtyEight Newsletter

Sign up for our newsletters to keep up with our favorite articles, charts and regressions. We have two on offer: The first is a curated digest of the best of what’s run on FiveThirtyEight that week. The other is Ctrl + , our weekly look at the best data journalism from around the web. Enter your email below, and we’ll be in touch.

By clicking subscribe, you agree to the FanBridge Privacy Policy

Powered by VIP