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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Chuck Todd is reporting that the Rules and Bylaws Committee is very near to a decision. It seems based on his reporting that:

- Florida will be seated based on the primary results and treated as half-delegates.
- Michigan will be seated 69-59 (the state’s compromise plan) and treated as half-delegates, meaning a split of 34.5-29.5 for accounting purposes. Since the 69-59 would represent a departure from the primary results, that would imply that uncommitted delegates would explicitly be designated as Obama delegates. Obama will also receive Michigan’s two add-on superdelegates.

If I’m doing the math correctly, this would give Obama 2,054 delegates, with 2,117 2,118 required to clinch the nomination. That would leave him 63 64 delegates away. Obama should pick up something like 41 pledged delegates between Puerto Rico, South Dakota and Montana, meaning that he’ll need around 20-25 more superdelegate endorsements to clinch the nomination.

This assumes, by the way, that Michigan and Florida *super*delegates are also treated as half-votes, which is something I’m not certain about. Also, Todd seems to think that a bunch more of the Florida Edwards delegates are for Obama than I’d seen reported elsewhere.

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