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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

Surprise, surprise.

Remember all that sturm und drang over whether the Florida and Michigan delegates would be seated at all, given half votes, or seated in full? Some of us strongly argued that the math made it possible to allow Obama prior to the May 31 Rules and By-Laws Committee meeting to make this same call to seat the Florida and Michigan delegations in full, as-is. Call it the “Call Harold Ickes’ Bluff” option.

Today we learn that Obama is calling for those delegates to have full voting rights. Some folks will surely be distressed at what will now be a consequence-free lesson in ignoring the DNC calendar (yes, Republicans held the majority in the Florida state legislature, but not a single Democrat voted against the measure). The reality, of course, is that those delegates were never going to be snubbed at the convention. The final blink was always going to be the DNC’s. This is inside baseball stuff, to be sure. But file this one away in your memory bank as the 2012 primary calendar is formed.

In other news:

Politico notes that McCain is vetting Eric Cantor (R-VA). I’d love to take 4-1 on both candidates that they pick someone outside the top four. CNN passes along the comment from a vapid anonymous source who asserts that adding the congressman will “lock up” Virginia. Dear God, on this beautiful blue-skied Sunday, please deliver us from the X locks up his/her home state lazyminds. It’s unbearable.

The polls are moving hard against Ted Stevens in a race multiple polls already showed him trailing. He still holds a large lead in the primary, but keep an eye on that if Alaska Republicans start believing nominating him is a waste of a chance to hold the seat.

Chuck Todd argues that while McCain’s strategy to go negative against Obama is the best way to go after him, McCain’s own personal strengths and weaknesses undermine the effort because there’s not enough contrast – both are political celebrities.

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