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FiveThirtyEight

Politics

If there’s any upside to all this waiting, I think we can all agree that it’s valuable getting this sneak preview of what it’ll be like to live in an America under a potential administration obviously deep in the pockets of Big Text.

Hopefully we beat Stewart and Colbert to that joke.

Remember, the over-under on the convention bounce is six. McCain’s group apparently has settled on a nine point inflation, to +15.

Fox News sez: Obama’s no longer advertising in AK, FL, GA, MT, NC, ND, VA.

Obama’s decision to stop advertising in those states is raising eyebrows.

Well, he’s probably giving up on those states, right? Fox also “accidentally” aired an Obama-Ayers ad they had condemned the day before. What a bad stroke of luck for them; people will claim they’re biased. Those guys can’t catch a break.

Ambinder says, hey, look at this flight plan. Taegan Goddard notes the Biden family is gathering in Delaware, including his son flying down from Maine.

Politico’s Republican blogger Jonathan Martin brought Cindy McCain flowers. Ben Smith? Michelle’s waiting.

Wolf Blitzer asked about our Ringtone Theory, and got a weird answer from the correspondent who suggested a potentially staggered announcement, as well as a potential dawn announcement. I just thought of two things that would annoy me out here in California far more than the middle-of-the-night text: (1) the Tape Delayed East Coast Bias Text and (2) the Dawn Text. If Robert Gibbs is indeed appearing on all the Saturday morning shows and folks like Matthews and Olbermann are gathering for special live coverage of the Obama speech in Springfield tomorrow morning, we may be at the Media Churlishness Tipping Point if we don’t get it tonight.

Now, think of the good feelings people have leaving work on a Friday – people gather socially on Friday nights, especially younger and more single people who can create a buzz. Imagine some of the more politically active young people hanging out with less politically active friends and getting a news-breaking text and tipping point some gatherings into little cells of persuasion. And now I’m talking myself into an imminent announcement. Isn’t MSNBC about to come online with the political shows?

Finally, a junkie anecdote: last night, I texted Nate about something, and he replied “*%^$, I thought that was Obama’s text.” And when he texted me back to say that, I stopped mid-pee to grab my phone.

Veepwatch: it burns.

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